Observed Choice and Optimism in Estimating the Effects of Government Policies
نویسنده
چکیده
A policy will be used more heavily in a particular time and placewhere its marginal cost is lower. The analyst who treats times and places as identical will overestimate the policy’s net benefit, especially for policy intensities greater than exist in his sample. In regression analysis, the problem can be solved by instrumentalvariables and a correction for heteroskedasticity. In an example usingstate-level data, the technique substantially increases theestimated responsiveness of the illegitimacy rate to transferpayments. Indiana University School of Business, Rm. 456, 10th Street and Fee Lane, Bloomington, Indiana, 47405-1701. Office: (812) 855-9219. Fax: 812-855-3354. Internet:[email protected]. JEL numbers and
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